KEY POINTS IN HISTORY
What we are presenting here isn’t rocket science but I know is new to some of you. It’s important to realize the same calculations that worked on the Russell 2000 chart I showed you in the webinar worked almost 30 years before that on the Silver charts I showed you last week. But I know old habits die hard and some of you still may not be convinced. Perhaps I got lucky. I’ve been accused by a well known “FUNDAMENTALIST” who already poo-poohs Fibonacci numbers of CURVE FITTING THE DATA. What that means is I’ve picked important news events and found something that works. That argument really doesn’t hold water because the numbers are what they are. The Russell was down 60% from the top, 55% from the bear market rally of 2008 and 33.99% from that last 4th wave pivot. All you had to do was look. Same thing with the Silver chart.
So this week, let’s look at a couple of examples from history. We are going back to the Great Depression and WWII eras for these. After you see these charts there should be no doubt. If you aren’t familiar with these, the bear market rally of 38-39 was a double top. It basically retraced 61% in terms of pricea and didn’t stop falling off for good until Hitler invaded Poland. But what we have here is a move that had a 62.9% gain followed by an ultimate 61.8% high as the second high just missed taking out that 1938 high. For good measure that last little C leg up was a perfect 31.5% (geometric 315) as it clustered with 61.8. The point is when you see symmetry line up like this it is very significant and should get your conviction gene warmed up!
Here’s a pattern that isn’t tied to any news event at all. Its the pattern for the Great Depression. In terms of the weeks, we have a good approximation at 148.5 weeks for an average drop of 2.326 points per week and overall the whole move was a Fibonacci 89% drop.
So by the time we got to the bottom we had dropped 2.33 points a week at 89% down. So am I really curve fitting the data? Truth be told, these calculation do not line up like this everyday. But they do at important turns! How often do we have important turns? Luckily not too often. But what you should be on the lookout for are these kinds of readings on smaller degrees of time as those tend to happen all of the time. If you look carefully, you’ll find something lining up like these once a week at least on chart that you do follow and certainly on charts you may not be aware of. It’s already November and that means its time for the convention. I’m going to be part of a panel discussion this Wednesday at 11:00 Central time at the DTI web site. All of the ICE speakers will be talking about our Las Vegas presentations. So if you are still sitting on the fence as to whether you want to go, perhaps our discussion will help you make up your mind.
http://www.dtitrader.com/trading_education_theICETrack_Vegas09_Jeff.htm
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