FIBONACCI EXTENSIONS
Many people don’t realize that Fibonacci extensions or expansions are one of the best tools for projecting the end of an important trend. There are 2 important ways of measuring these extensions. First we take all or part of the last leg of the old trend and project it into the future. Some of the most important ones are the 2.618 extension of the last leg of the 1966 drop that topped near 95 on the SPX. The October 1990 crisis low during the first Gulf War buildup ended in a 1.618 extension of the leg from May 1990 to the summer high. That also completed in 61 days down. Getting to distant history, the May 1942 bottom materialized as a result of the last leg up of the bear rally in the summer of 1039 and B wave up in 1940. Other extensions materialized in 1947, 1952 and the 1960 bottom. There are many more. The 1987 top came as a result of the 6.84 extension of the 1976-78 pullback.
So history is full of important examples and if you want more information on that I cover this topic extensively in my DVD called Harnessing Explosive Market Turns. But for today I want to show you a couple of current examples.
This week, I’m one of the speakers for ICE FUTURES US at the Las Vegas Traders Expo. That being said, here is a long term chart of Cocoa which has one of the better long term extensions you’ll ever see. Recently, we’ve had a good pullback in Cocoa. We have 2 big extensions working. The first one is a smaller one from the last leg down of the old bear market from 97-98 to the 2000 bottom. That one already gave us an important high at 1.618 of that last leg down for the 2003 high. The 2.618 of that leg is just above at about 3531 which we have not hit yet. One that we did hit in teh 1.27 extension of the much larger leg down from 1984. Think these markets don’t have a memory? Think again. Not only do long term cycles kick in, so do important calculations, even on a continuation chart.
With that in mind, check out this important long term silver chart. Last year’s top is a very close 2.618 approximation of the move from the 1987 high down to the end of the bear market in 1996. We are now within a couple of hundred points of retesting this landmark top. After you take a serious look at this chart I’m sure you’ll realize the long term implications not only to the metals, but the US Dollar and ultimately all equity markets.
I’ve come to realize extensions are a much better tool for longer term targets although they do work on a daily and weekly as well. I’m sure I’ll stir a little controversy when I suggest they are less effective on intraday charts. For intraday charts, I find that our price and time square formula as well as median lines work much better. Since I am appearing at the show this week, we do have show special pricing on our newsletters and training program until midnight on Sunday, November 22. If you are coming to Las Vegas, I’ll be speaking at 2:30 on Friday.
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